ON THE ROLE OF FORECASTING IN LAWMAKING AND THE CRITERIA FOR DETERMINING THE LEGAL CONSEQUENCES OF LAWS

Abstract

In modern conditions, there is an urgent need for qualitative forecasting, strengthening the prognostic aspect of lawmaking and foreseeing the legal consequences of the adopted law. The article analyzes the role of forecasting in lawmaking as an important part of legislative activity, the need for which is determined by the increasing in recent years the rule-making activity of public authorities.

The author notes an insufficiently attentive attitude in lawmaking concerning to the question of forecasting the consequences of the adopted law and the urgent need to carry out qualitative forecasting, assessing the impact of the adopted law on social processes under the possible influence of the draft law.

The existing mechanisms for the implementation of the forecast of the validity of legislative acts are analyzed separately: examination of bills; financial and economic substantiation of bills; regulatory impact analysis and legal monitoring.

The author concludes about the need for complex approach to forecasting the effectiveness of legal regulation and the development and consolidation of a system of rules for scientific forecasting both in the development of prospective plans for the development of legislation and in the development of draft regulatory legal acts. It grounds the need to develop recommendations for determining the legal consequences of the laws that will allow the legislator to reduce the negative consequences of unsuccessful legislative decisions.

It is noted that a qualitative forecast in lawmaking requires the development of clear guidelines for conducting forecasting of the laws, developed on the basis of a combination of elements of various analytical tools to improve the quality of legislation and the effectiveness of lawmaking.